To research the impact of Brexit (Britian exits EU) today:


Areas to review given that things only happen in the next 2 years (they will sort it out):

• UK Economics (short term view)
  • Harder trades/goods movements + value of pound (people’s belief) drops => Difficult import & cheaper export => Higher inflation (still difficult to say! – a value of pound become less in future)
  • Due to inflation, mortgage cost increases – depending on monetary control.
  • Hence house price drop
  • Trade tariff with EU (no idea on this…)
  • Cross-border business: Corporation/company leaving UK due to restriction from the separation.
  • UK Equity – short term drops due to behavioral finance. Long term depends on company’s business sensitivity to Import/Export
  • Revised Trade Agreement with EU and other countries
• UK Social
  • Immigrant issue
  • Restricted movement between European countries
  • Higher cost to travel
• US’s Feb Rate: not going to hike soon as US dollar rise due to high demand for US. Treasuries. Or investors are moving to Gold, pushing Gold price increases.
  • Mortgage cost remains as low (US -> Singapore)
  • House price might increase
• Global market (short term):
  • US Treasury bond & gold UP
  • Stock DOWN depending on the uncertainty & sensitivity to UK’s market: Bank / Technology / Commodities
• Banking: Euro clearing mostly in London needs to be revised.
• Uncertainty on EU’s future: who’s next – Vox’s comment

(*): Inflation means expecting purchasing power goes down in future (low productivity &  expanding money supply)

(**): Interest rate is to protect the purchasing power of money when lending (lend to protect)