Numb3rs = tivi series – phim truyền hình nhiều tập :D. Watch for fun. But let’s see what else the film has put in my mind 😐
1. Probability still leaves a space for surprises. Prediction of an event with probability of 86% is high but that event can be realized into null in the end
2.Life follows causality (hệ quả trước sau). One event leads to another event. Plan for a crime always starts with you (hah, a planner) – and you can not be null. So there’s always a trace back to you, no matter how you cover it.
What does that mean? The probability model of an event of crime is
P(Crime | you) = P(Crime | C) P(C |B) P(B | A)… P(A | you)
well, A, B, C are events that help lead to the final crime. What you as a bad guy try do to is to make P(Crime | you) = P(Crime) (* – tội ác diễn ra một cách tự nhiên :-?) so that it is impossible to find you in that chain of events through this classifier
The scientists in the movie (Charlies, Amita, Larry…) basically in every crime try to model the YOU (i.e. P(YOU) – to be precise) by several variables, characteristics to narrow to those with high P(you | Crime). If you can make (*) happen, than P(you | Crime) can be P(anyone). Haha…
But well, you CAN’T be null as “”I think, therefore I am” (Descartes).
And bad guys always get caught in the move 🙂
3. Causality, karma (thuyết nhân quả…) is it true that this world operates by these laws? No instantaneous events ? (something relates to Einstein and the speed of light, I guess).
4. Human behavior – hah :D. People believe in God ( Trời, Phật, Chúa, thánh Ala, tổ tiên, Bụt, Tiên… thế lực huyền bí) – and do good acts accordingly (ở hiền gặp lành, lên thiên đường, lên cõi cực lạc…). So we have P(GOD) and P(good acts | GOD) HIGH.
P(good acts) = P(GOD) * P(good act | GOD) / P(GOD | good acts)
But we may admit that “người bản chất là xấu”, hix, meaning P(good acts) is LOW (ít ai rỗi hơi làm việc tốt KHÔNG công), therefore, P(GOD | good acts) must be HIGH – meaning people who do good acts very likely believe in GOD. How about you?
5. … Nghĩ ra gì thì sẽ viết tiếp.
Hehe =))